Fuel Shock Analysis
Last updated: 2026-04-07
The 2026 Iran war has caused an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA characterises it as "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market."
Japan's exposure
- 94.2% of Japan's crude oil imports come from the Middle East (as of Feb 2026)
- ~70% travels via the Strait of Hormuz
- Approximately two-thirds of Japan's oil supply is currently at risk
Timeline
Japan's government response (as of Apr 7)
- Released 80 million barrels from strategic reserves (~45 days of supply)
- Subsidising fuel to cap gasoline at ~170 JPY/L
- Ruling and opposition parties agreed to scrap gasoline tax surcharge (permanent -7-10 JPY/L)
- Greenlit older coal-fired power plants for one year starting Apr 2026
- No mandatory driving restrictions yet — but PM "not ruling out any options"
- Relying on voluntary compliance for now
Current fuel prices
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Gasoline | >190 JPY/L (36-year high, up 18% in one week as of late March) |
| Subsidised cap | ~170 JPY/L |
Impact on our trip
Rental car (May 2-5, Hakodate to Sapporo)
The rental car is booked (Toyota, confirmation 99934707200, A$809.61). Risks:
- Fuel may be scarce or rationed by early May
- Prices are extreme even with subsidies
- Mandatory restrictions could be introduced at any time
- The stress of finding fuel undermines the point of a holiday
Public transport alternatives (fully viable)
| Leg | Option | Time | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hakodate to Lake Toya | JR Hokuto limited express to Toya Stn, then bus to Toyako Onsen | ~2 hrs + 15 min | ~6,690 JPY + 400 JPY |
| Lake Toya to Sapporo | Donan Bus direct | ~2.5 hrs | 3,700 JPY |
| Lake Toya to Sapporo | JR from Toya Station | ~100 min | 6,690 JPY |
| Sapporo to Otaru | JR train (every 5 min) | 51 min | ~640 JPY |
| Hakodate to Sapporo (direct) | JR Hokuto limited express | ~3.5 hrs | ~9,440 JPY |
Covers all JR lines in Hokkaido. A 5-day pass would cover May 2-6 and replace the rental car entirely. Check current pricing closer to departure.
The Nonokaze Resort (Lake Toya) offers shuttle services — confirm whether they do station/bus terminal pickups.
Recommendation
The Hokkaido leg works entirely by rail and bus. Trains are more comfortable, remove fuel anxiety, and Dennison can navigate everything in Japanese. The cost difference is likely minimal after factoring in fuel prices, tolls, and parking.
Decision deadline
Monitor through mid-April. Key trigger: if Japan announces mandatory demand curbs or formal rationing, cancel immediately. Even without that, the trajectory suggests cancellation is the safer call.
Sources
- 2026 Iran war fuel crisis — Wikipedia
- Japan begins release of oil reserves — Al Jazeera
- The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Driving a Wave of Global Energy Rationing — TIME
- Japan weighs steps to curb oil demand — Japan Today
- Japan's Farms, Buses Struggle to Find Fuel — Bloomberg
- Asia embraces energy austerity — CNN
- Global oil crisis becoming an everything crisis — CNN
- Japan's vulnerability to Iran crisis — Carbon Brief
- Global Fuel Shortage Pushes Governments Toward Demand Controls — OilPrice.com
- Sapporo to Lake Toya transport — japan-guide.com
- JR Hokkaido Rail Pass guide — Pelago